Kerf & Press
Search⌘K

Machines we research

Craft Business — Pricing, profit, startup costs and what actually sells.

Free tools

All tools

Lab status: every product page is marked researched until a machine we bought has been through the test protocol.

Kerf & Press
Search guides, machines, tools…
Free toolv1.0Runs in your browser

Laser ROI Simulator: Will This Machine Pay for Itself?

It depends far more on how many orders you have than on the machine. In our example, a $1,299 xTool S1 20W selling tumblers at $34.99 each on Etsy pays for itself in about 8 weeks at 15 orders a week — but 24 weeks at 3 a week. Swap in your own machine, price and demand below.

How this works

Enter your own numbers or keep our defaults. Results update as you type and are calculated on your device; nothing is sent to us. Each default value shows where it came from.

Assumptions you can change

Defaults are examples, not promises. Your material costs, prices, time and local taxes will differ — change any input to match your shop. This is not financial advice.

What you’ll sell

Typical listings: $25–$45 per tumbler (example range).

Blank + consumables + packaging

Once demand has ramped up

Time you can spend making

Assumption Setup, loading, finishing, packing

Where you sell

Marketplace

EIA, June 2026 (preliminary)

Machines to compare

Cycle times are assumptions Until our lab measures them, the minutes per item are our estimates for each machine type. Time one real job and type it in.

  1. Machine 1

    List price $1,299

    Estimate

  2. Machine 2

    List price $1,499

    Estimate

At $34.99 per tumbler and 15 orders a week, the xTool S1 20W pays for itself in about 8 weeks (likely 7–9 weeks).

xTool S1 20W

Pays for itself in8 weeksUnder 6 monthsLikely 7–9 weeks · 100% of runs within 12 months
Profit per tumbler
$21.76
Per machine-hour
$109
Weekly profit
$326
Monthly profit
$1,414
Break-even orders
60
Your effective wage
$76.80/h
Capacity ceiling42 / week

Using 4.3 h of your week at 17 min per tumbler.

xTool F2

Pays for itself in9 weeksUnder 6 monthsLikely 8–10 weeks · 100% of runs within 12 months
Profit per tumbler
$21.76
Per machine-hour
$326
Weekly profit
$326
Monthly profit
$1,415
Break-even orders
69
Your effective wage
$145/h
Capacity ceiling80 / week

Using 2.3 h of your week at 9 min per tumbler.

Cash position over 12 months (after buying the machine)
−$5k$0$5k$10k$15kStart3 mo6 mo9 mo12 moBreak-evenS1 20W paid off · wk 8F2 paid off · wk 9
Show the chart data as a table
MonthxTool S1 20WxTool F2
Start−$1,299 (−$1.3k to −$1.3k)−$1,499 (−$1.5k to −$1.5k)
Month 1−$891 (−$963 to −$815)−$1,091 (−$1.2k to −$1k)
Month 2$496 ($179 to $830)$297 (−$28 to $630)
Month 3$1,802 ($1.3k to $2.4k)$1,602 ($1k to $2.2k)
Month 4$3,107 ($2.3k to $3.9k)$2,908 ($2.1k to $3.7k)
Month 5$4,739 ($3.7k to $5.9k)$4,541 ($3.4k to $5.7k)
Month 6$6,045 ($4.7k to $7.4k)$5,846 ($4.5k to $7.2k)
Month 7$7,350 ($5.8k to $9k)$7,152 ($5.6k to $8.8k)
Month 8$8,982 ($7.2k to $11k)$8,785 ($6.9k to $11k)
Month 9$10,288 ($8.2k to $12k)$10,090 ($8k to $12k)
Month 10$11,593 ($9.3k to $14k)$11,396 ($9.1k to $14k)
Month 11$13,225 ($11k to $16k)$13,029 ($10k to $16k)
Month 12$14,531 ($12k to $17k)$14,334 ($11k to $17k)
How sure are you?We re-run your scenario 240 times, nudging each number inside these ranges. The shaded band shows where the middle 80% of outcomes land.
±30%
±20%
±15%
±10%

Sales, coupons, price pressure

8 wk
Where each tumbler’s money goes
Per tumblerxTool S1 20WxTool F2
Price per tumbler$34.99$34.99
Etsy fees$3.77$3.77
Materials−$9.45−$9.45
Electricity−$0.01$0.00
Cash profit$21.76$21.76
Your time (at your hourly value)−$5.67−$3.00
Profit after paying yourself$16.09$18.76

Machines in this scenario

Prices move often — check the current price before you plug it in above. These are paid links; they never change the math.

  • xTool S1 20W

    List price $1,299 (checked 2026-09-25). Status: researched, not yet lab-tested.

    Paid link

  • xTool F2

    List price $1,499 (checked 2026-09-25). Status: researched, not yet lab-tested.

    Paid link

How the simulator works

Everything runs in your browser from the numbers you see. Nothing is sent anywhere; the scenario lives in the page address so you can bookmark or share it.

Profit per item

cash profit = price + shipping charged − marketplace fees(price + shipping) − materials − electricity electricity = machine watts ÷ 1000 × machine minutes ÷ 60 × $/kWh after-time = cash profit − (machine min + hands-on min) ÷ 60 × your $/h

Fees come from each platform’s published US fee schedule: Etsy charges a $0.20 listing fee, a 6.5% transaction fee and 3% + $0.25 payment processing; Amazon Handmade takes 15% (minimum $0.30); Shopify Basic has a monthly plan fee plus 2.9% + $0.30 per online card payment. We count your machine minutes as your time too, because you should never leave a running laser unattended.

Capacity, weekly profit and payback

capacity/week = floor(hours per week × 60 ÷ (machine min + hands-on min)) sold/week = min(orders per week, capacity) weekly profit = sold × profit per item − monthly plan fees × 12 ÷ 52 cash(week n) = − machine cost + Σ weekly profit (demand ramps up linearly) payback = first week where cash ≥ 0

Break-even orders is the machine cost divided by profit per item, rounded up. Profit per machine-hour divides profit per item by machine minutes — useful when your machine, not demand, is the bottleneck.

The uncertainty band

Real businesses don’t hit their plan exactly. The simulator re-runs your scenario 240 times. Each run nudges orders, machine time, material cost and the price you actually get by a random amount inside your ± sliders (a triangular distribution: small misses are more likely than big ones). The shaded band shows where the middle 80% of runs land each week (10th to 90th percentile), and the “likely” payback range comes from the same runs. The random seed is fixed, so the same link always shows the same band.

Assumptions you should check

  • Cycle times are estimates, not lab measurements. Each product has an assumed machine time per machine type (diode laser, CO2 laser, fiber laser, galvo laser, vinyl cutter, flat heat press, DTF printer, sublimation printer, mug press, tumbler press, hat press, embroidery machine). Rated engraving speed is a ceiling, not the speed of a real job. Time one of your own jobs and type it in; our lab will replace these with measured times.
  • Machine prices are manufacturer list prices at the time we checked. Add what you’ll really spend on extras such as fume extraction, a rotary or an enclosure in “Machine + extras”.
  • Electricity defaults to the U.S. average residential rate of 18.34¢/kWh (June 2026 (preliminary), U.S. EIA), with state averages to choose from. Machine power uses the manufacturer’s rated input power where published, otherwise an assumed average draw (diode laser ≈ 150 W; galvo laser ≈ 150 W; fiber laser ≈ 400 W; CO2 laser ≈ 1000 W; flat heat press ≈ 1200 W; tumbler press ≈ 400 W; mug press ≈ 300 W; hat press ≈ 300 W; sublimation printer ≈ 20 W; DTF printer ≈ 600 W; vinyl cutter ≈ 20 W; embroidery machine ≈ 80 W). For most jobs electricity is a few cents per item.
  • Product prices and material costs are starting examples — blank prices come from the supplier pages in the sources below; retail ranges, consumables and times are our editorial estimates. Your blanks, packaging and price will differ — edit them.
  • Not included: sales tax, income tax, shipping labels (assumed covered by what you charge), advertising (except Etsy Offsite Ads when switched on), failed pieces, software subscriptions and machine maintenance. Add them to materials if you want them counted per item.
  • Every order is one item. Multi-item orders pay the per-order fixed fees once, so real fees are slightly lower.

Not financial advice. This is an educational model with example assumptions you can change. It doesn’t know your market, taxes or costs, and it can’t promise any income. Check the numbers with your own records (and an accountant) before you buy equipment.

Sources

Every spec and number on this page links back to where it came from.

  1. Etsy — Fees & Payments Policyetsy.com
  2. Etsy — Etsy Payments Policy (processing fee table)etsy.com
  3. Amazon — Sell handmade products (Amazon Handmade)sell.amazon.com
  4. Shopify — Pricingshopify.com
  5. Square Support — Learn about Square fees (US, Free plan)squareup.com
  6. U.S. EIA — Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (June 2026 data, released Aug 26, 2026)eia.gov
  7. MakerFlo — 20oz Skinny Tumbler (powder coated), $8.95 single / $179 case of 25makerflo.com
  8. BulkLaser — Slate Coaster, $1.16 round / $1.15 squarebulklaser.com
  9. MakerFlo — TruFlat Laser Wood, 12×19 in sheet $5.25 (maple/oak)makerflo.com
  10. Crafted Supplies — Genuine Leather Loop Keychain, $3.19craftedsupplies.com
  11. Lazy 3 Leather Co. — Laser Engraved Leather Keychain (retail example, $22)lazy3leatherco.com
  12. MakerFlo — Bamboo Cutting Board 14×10, $9.95 single / $79.60 case of 10makerflo.com
  13. Laser Craft Supply — Cast Acrylic 3 mm 12×20 in, $12.99 (sale; reg. $16.50)lasercraftsupply.com
  14. MakerFlo — Laserette Motel Keychain, $2.95 single / $28.32 case of 12makerflo.com
  15. JonesTshirts — Gildan G5000 Heavy Cotton T-Shirt, $2.59jonestshirts.com
  16. Expressions Vinyl — Siser EasyWeed 12 in × 5 yd roll, $39.99expressionsvinyl.com
  17. DTF Transfers Now — Custom DTF Gang Sheets, 22×24 in (2 ft) $10.80dtftransfersnow.com
  18. The Stainless Depot — Sublimatable White T-Shirt, $2.95thestainlessdepotcompany.com
  19. MakerFlo — Sublimation Paper, 8.5×11 100 sheets $14.95; 11×17 100 sheets $24.95makerflo.com
  20. Ricoma — 11oz White Ceramic Sublimation Mug, 36 per case $40.99ricoma.com
  21. MakerFlo — Sublimation Heat Tape, $3.95 per rollmakerflo.com
  22. MakerFlo — 20oz Skinny Sublimation Tumbler, $8.95 single / $179 case of 25makerflo.com
  23. MakerFlo — Sublimation Coaster, pack of 12 $29.95makerflo.com
  24. Blank Wholesale Hats — Richardson 112 trucker hat (black), $8.35blankwholesalehats.com
  25. Signwarehouse — Oracal 651 12 in × 10 yd, $16.95 (white/black)signwarehouse.com
  26. ClassB Trading Post — Blank black 3×1 in twill name patch, $2.59tradingpost.classb.com

Newsletter

Lab notes, in your inbox

New research, price changes and test results as they land. Written for people who make things to sell.

No spam, unsubscribe in one click. We never sell your address. Privacy policy